Bearish Marubozu
BearishContinuationBeginnerOne huge red candle, top to bottom with no wicks. Sellers never let up.
Verdict: SkipBitcoin 4H: 11 trades, won 36%, avg trade −2.0% vs random day −0.2% (too few trades to judge). Backtest
Price is already heading down. The bounces are getting weaker.
step 1/6
Trade rules
| Direction | Short (sell) |
|---|---|
| Entry | In a downtrend, a candle CLOSES below the bearish marubozu's low within 3 candles. |
| Cancelled if | Price trades above the marubozu's high before that close. |
| Target | 2x the candle, projected from the breakout |
3 common mistakes
- Shorting at the marubozu close, after the whole move already happened.
- Using the same position size as usual: the stop is a full candle away.
- Counting any big red candle: with long wicks it shows buyers fighting back.
Backtest
same rules every time · equal size · no fees · method| Market | Trades | Won | Avg trade | Random day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin · 4H · 2017-2026 · too few trades to judge | 11 | 36% | −2.01% | −0.21% |
| US large caps (50) · 1D · 2016-2026 | 81 | 43% | −0.43% | −0.88% |
Verdict: SkipLost money on average on US large caps. Bitcoin had too few signals to judge.
pattern −35%random −71%