Downside Tasuki Gap

BearishContinuationIntermediate

Two red candles gap down, then a green one pokes into the gap but can't close it.

Verdict: SkipBitcoin 4H: 0 trades, won —, avg trade — vs random day — (too few trades to judge). Backtest

Downtrend
Downside Tasuki Gap: textbook shape, step by step

A downtrend, and a solid red candle.

step 1/7

Trade rules

DirectionShort (sell)
EntryIn a downtrend: a red candle, a red candle whose body opens below the first one's close, then a green candle that opens inside the second body and closes inside the gap. A candle CLOSES below the pattern's low within 3 candles.
Cancelled ifPrice trades above the first candle's close (the gap is filled) before that close.
Target2x the pattern, projected from the breakout
3 common mistakes
  • Reading the green candle as a reversal and buying it.
  • Calling it a tasuki when the green candle closes the gap completely.
  • Shorting before price breaks the pattern's low.

Backtest

same rules every time · equal size · no fees · method
MarketTradesWonAvg tradeRandom day
Bitcoin · 4H · 2017-2026 · too few trades to judge0———
US large caps (50) · 1D · 2016-20262821%−2.97%−0.71%

Verdict: SkipLost money on average on US large caps. Bitcoin had too few signals to judge.

pattern −83%random −20%
US large caps (50) 1D: pattern −83% vs random day −20% over 28 trades

Real examples

Tesla · 1D

Breakout May 17, 2019, exit May 22, 2019 (target)+8.44%
Pattern lowDowntrend19.74 · Apr 3, 2019Gap down14.97 · May 13, 2019Green pokes in15.63 · May 14, 2019Confirmed
Tesla 1D, real candles from Apr 3, 2019

Berkshire Hathaway · 1D

trapBreakout Aug 14, 2019, exit Aug 16, 2019 (stop)−1.83%
Pattern lowDowntrend216.58 · Jul 10, 2019Gap down196.91 · Aug 12, 2019Green pokes in201.00 · Aug 13, 2019Confirmed
Berkshire Hathaway 1D, real candles from Jul 10, 2019