When is the Dragonfly Doji confirmed?

After a decline, a candle CLOSES above the dragonfly doji's high within 3 candles.

When is the Dragonfly Doji invalid?

Price trades below the dragonfly doji's low before that close.

BullishReversalBeginner

Open, a deep plunge, and a close right back at the open. Sellers got nothing.

Verdict: SkipBitcoin 4H: 14 trades, won 64%, avg trade +0.8% vs random day +0.3% (too few trades to judge). Backtest

Downtrend

Dragonfly Doji: textbook shape, step by step

Price is falling, lower and lower.

step 1/6

Direction	Long (buy)
Entry	After a decline, a candle CLOSES above the dragonfly doji's high within 3 candles.
Cancelled if	Price trades below the dragonfly doji's low before that close.
Target	2x the doji, projected from the breakout

3 common mistakes

Buying the doji itself: open equals close means a tie, not a win for buyers yet.
Accepting a real upper wick: then it is just a doji or a hammer, not a dragonfly.
Trading one in the middle of a range, with no decline before it to reverse.

same rules every time · equal size · no fees · method

Market	Trades	Won	Avg trade	Random day
Bitcoin · 4H · 2017-2026 · too few trades to judge	14	64%	+0.84%	+0.33%
US large caps (50) · 1D · 2016-2026	62	48%	−0.06%	+0.44%

Verdict: SkipLost money on average on US large caps. Bitcoin had too few signals to judge.

pattern −3.6%random +27%

US large caps (50) 1D: pattern −3.6% vs random day +27% over 62 trades

Breakout Aug 30, 2025, exit Sep 2, 2025 (target)+1.95%

Doji highDowntrend113,667 · Aug 25, 2025Dragonfly doji107,350 · Aug 30, 2025Confirmed

Bitcoin 4H, real candles from Aug 25, 2025

Breakout Sep 16, 2024, exit Oct 11, 2024 (target)+5.25%

Doji highDowntrend41.89 · Jul 30, 2024Dragonfly doji38.01 · Sep 11, 2024Confirmed

Bank of America 1D, real candles from Jul 30, 2024

trapBreakout Jan 12, 2022, exit Jan 14, 2022 (stop)−2.35%

Doji highDowntrend420.61 · Dec 6, 2021Dragonfly doji380.91 · Jan 10, 2022Confirmed

Home Depot 1D, real candles from Dec 6, 2021