Kupach Trading

Bullish Harami

BullishReversalBeginner

A small candle inside a big red one. The selling stalls, then you wait for proof.

Verdict: UseBitcoin 4H: 40 trades, won 50%, avg trade +0.9% vs random day +0.3%. Backtest

Downtrend
Bullish Harami: textbook shape, step by step

Price is falling, one lower close after another.

step 1/7

Trade rules

DirectionLong (buy)
EntryAfter a decline, a candle CLOSES above the pattern's high within 3 candles.
Cancelled ifPrice trades below the pattern's low before that close.
Target2x the pattern, projected from the breakout
3 common mistakes
  • Buying the small green candle: it only shows the selling paused.
  • Accepting a second body that pokes outside the red body.
  • Using a small red candle: the harami needs a long red body to sit inside.

Backtest

same rules every time · equal size · no fees · method
MarketTradesWonAvg tradeRandom day
Bitcoin · 4H · 2017-20264050%+0.87%+0.34%
US large caps (50) · 1D · 2016-202631757%+1.21%+0.75%

Verdict: UseMade money and beat a random entry in every market tested.

pattern +35%random +13%
Bitcoin 4H: pattern +35% vs random day +13% over 40 trades
pattern +384%random +238%
US large caps (50) 1D: pattern +384% vs random day +238% over 317 trades

Real examples

Bitcoin · 4H

Breakout Apr 18, 2022, exit Apr 21, 2022 (target)+4.73%
Pattern highDowntrend41,561 · Apr 13, 2022Harami38,537 · Apr 18, 2022Confirmed
Bitcoin 4H, real candles from Apr 13, 2022

Thermo Fisher · 1D

Breakout Mar 16, 2022, exit Mar 30, 2022 (target)+6.52%
Pattern highDowntrend608.71 · Feb 2, 2022Harami528.93 · Mar 11, 2022Confirmed
Thermo Fisher 1D, real candles from Feb 2, 2022

Salesforce · 1D

trapBreakout Aug 14, 2023, exit Aug 17, 2023 (stop)−3.68%
Pattern highDowntrend238.22 · Jul 19, 2023Harami204.91 · Aug 9, 2023Confirmed
Salesforce 1D, real candles from Jul 19, 2023