Gap Fill
BullishContinuationBeginnerTraders say every gap gets filled. This trade bets on it.
Verdict: SkipBitcoin 4H: 0 trades, won —, avg trade — vs random day — (too few trades to judge). Backtest
Price is in an uptrend. Note where this candle closes. It matters later.
step 1/6
Trade rules
| Direction | Long (buy) |
|---|---|
| Entry | In an uptrend, a gap down (the candle's high below the previous candle's low). A candle CLOSES above the gap candle's high within 3 candles. Target: the close before the gap. |
| Cancelled if | Price trades below the gap candle's low before that close. |
| Target | Gap fills, projected from the breakout |
3 common mistakes
- Buying the gap-down open with no confirmation: some gaps never fill.
- Aiming past the prior close: the classic trade ends when the gap is filled.
- Trading gap fills in a downtrend: this setup needs an uptrend to return to.
Backtest
same rules every time · equal size · no fees · method| Market | Trades | Won | Avg trade | Random day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin · 4H · 2017-2026 · too few trades to judge | 0 | — | — | — |
| US large caps (50) · 1D · 2016-2026 | 276 | 78% | +0.17% | +0.26% |
Verdict: SkipIt made money, but less than buying on a random day. Bitcoin had too few signals to judge.
pattern +46%random +72%