Avalanche AVAX/USDT · 4H
11.21−2.88% 24h
Patterns detected on AVAX · 4H
ranked by edge over randomEach pattern was backtested on AVAX's full history with the live rules. Edge is its average move minus a random entry held for the same time. A pattern that does not beat random is marked no edge; under 30 trades it is a thin sample. Most patterns win about half their trades, so a positive edge matters more than the win rate.
To target is the level odds of the panel on the right at 30 days: how often price reached this setup's target first, against how often it went the other way. Those odds count the levels, not the pattern. Pick a row to see its levels, plan and odds.
| # | Pattern | Won · AVAX / all | Avg vs random | Edge | Trades | To target · against, 30d | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61.9% / 59.5% | +0.62% vs +0.16% | +0.46% | 155 | 28.0% · 42.0% | beats random | |
| 2 | 66.5% / 60.6% | +0.53% vs +0.36% | +0.17% | 215 | 25.8% · 42.5% | beats random | |
| 3 | 61.9% / 41.9% | +2.00% vs +0.30% | +1.70% | 21 | 32.9% · 44.0% | thin sample |
Levels
Broke out on the candle of Oct 7, 04:00 UTC, entry 11.32.
Entered on the candle of Oct 7, 04:00 UTC at 11.32. From here the trade ends at target A 11.73 (+4.6% from now) or at the stop 10.90 (−2.8% from now).
Target A: The trigger plus the pattern’s height (or the pattern’s own target line, when it has one). Where the trade takes profit. It is +4.6% from the current price.
Trigger (enter on a 4H close above): The pattern’s breakout line at the current candle. A 4H close above it is the entry signal. It is −0.9% from the current price.
Cancel level (a close below breaks the other way): The pattern’s invalidation level. A 4H close below it means the setup failed and price is breaking the other way. It is −2.6% from the current price.
Stop: The detector’s stop for this pattern. Touching it ends the trade at a loss. It is −2.8% from the current price.
Target C (the other way): The cancel level minus the pattern’s height: how far the opposite move is measured to. It is −8.2% from the current price.
| Level | Price | From now |
|---|---|---|
| Target A | 11.73 | +4.6% |
| Trigger (enter on a 4H close above) | 11.11 | −0.9% |
| Cancel level (a close below breaks the other way) | 10.92 | −2.6% |
| Stop | 10.90 | −2.8% |
| Target C (the other way) | 10.30 | −8.2% |
Rules as on the Fair Value Gap page. Educational, not financial advice.
Trade plan
The pattern's own trade is marked. The other column is the trade if price closes beyond the cancel level instead: enter on that close, stop halfway back to the trigger, target C. "Wins in" is the outcome where that trade reaches its target without touching its stop, at the horizon chosen in the odds panel.
| Plan | Long · pattern | Short |
|---|---|---|
| 4H close | > 11.11 | < 10.92 |
| Stop | 10.90 | 11.01 |
| Target | 11.73 | 10.30 |
| Risk : reward | 1 : 3.06 | 1 : 6.59 |
| Wins in outcome, 30d | 1 · 22.5% | 4 · 17.1% |
What happens next
These odds count the levels, not the pattern: every past AVAX 4H moment with price the same distance from this trigger, stop and targets, followed for the window. The pattern's own record is in the patterns table.
For this long setup, Bull = outcomes 1 + 2 (price reaches target A) and Bear = 3 + 4 (price reaches target C). Chop = traps that snap back (5) plus sideways (6).
Each case is one past 4H candle on AVAX: we place today’s levels around its price at the same distances in percent and record which of the six outcomes happened first within 30 days.
The six add up to 100% because every case ends in exactly one of them; outcome 6 collects the cases where nothing was decided in time. Longer horizons leave fewer cases undecided.
“Most likely” is the largest share: what happened most often in the past. It is not a forecast for this setup.
Found after it had already broken out, so these odds are as of the close before the breakout candle. That break has happened: outcomes 1 to 3 are the ones still in play.
13,026 past AVAX 4H moments at these levels · each counted once
Bear leads over 30 days. The long trade itself wins cleanly in 22.5% (outcome 1).
Half of AVAX's past 30-day moves ended inside (−6.3% to +15.0%). Target A 11.73 is inside it, target C 10.30 below.
- Clean breakout → targetBull22.5%
- Shakeout → target anywayBull5.5%
- Fakeout → breakdownBear24.9%
- Breakdown → targetBear17.1%
- Bear trap → snap backChop30.0%
- Sideways, nothing happensChop0.0%
Historical frequencies, not a forecast. Not financial advice.
Track record
Collecting live results: 1 of 10 resolved.