Double Bottom

BullishReversalBeginner

Two failed attempts to break the same low. The floor holds.

Verdict: SkipBitcoin 4H: 20 trades, won 45%, avg trade −0.8% vs random day +0.9%. Backtest

Bottom 1
Double Bottom: textbook shape, step by step

Price sells off hard and hits a low. Then buyers step in and bounce it.

step 1/7

Trade rules

DirectionLong (buy)
EntryA candle CLOSE above the peak (resistance).
Cancelled ifPrice closes below the lower of the two bottoms.
TargetSame height, projected from the breakout
3 common mistakes
  • Buying the second bottom before resistance breaks.
  • Bottoms too close together in time: that's noise, not a pattern.
  • Ignoring the weak 1:1 reward-to-risk.

Backtest

same rules every time · equal size · no fees · method
MarketTradesWonAvg tradeRandom day
Bitcoin · 4H · 2017-20262045%−0.84%+0.93%
US large caps (50) · 1D · 2016-202616059%+0.39%+1.64%

Verdict: SkipLost money on Bitcoin. On stocks it made a little, but a random day made four times more.

pattern −17%random +19%
Bitcoin 4H: pattern −17% vs random day +19% over 20 trades
pattern +63%random +263%
US large caps (50) 1D: pattern +63% vs random day +263% over 160 trades

Real examples

Bitcoin · 12H

Breakout Jan 8, 2023, exit Jan 11, 2023 (target)+4.54%
Same floorResistanceBottom 116,256 · Dec 19, 2022Peak17,061 · Dec 20, 2022Bottom 216,333 · Dec 30, 2022Breakout
Bitcoin 12H, real candles from Dec 14, 2022

AbbVie · 1D

Breakout Oct 21, 2022, exit Nov 21, 2022 (target)+7.42%
Same floorResistanceBottom 1134.10 · Sep 1, 2022Peak145.54 · Sep 27, 2022Bottom 2134.09 · Sep 30, 2022Breakout
AbbVie 1D, real candles from Jul 26, 2022

Bitcoin · 4H

trapBreakout May 4, 2022, exit May 5, 2022 (stop)−6.42%
Same floorResistanceBottom 137,386 · May 1, 2022Peak39,167 · May 2, 2022Bottom 237,518 · May 3, 2022Breakout
Bitcoin 4H, real candles from Apr 28, 2022