Rising Wedge
BearishReversalIntermediatePrice climbs, but every push gets smaller. The trend is suffocating.
Verdict: SkipBitcoin 4H: 26 trades, won 46%, avg trade −0.4% vs random day —. Backtest
At first glance this looks bullish. Higher highs, higher lows. Price keeps climbing.
step 1/6
Trade rules
| Direction | Short (sell) |
|---|---|
| Entry | A candle CLOSE below the lower trendline. |
| Cancelled if | Price breaks out above the upper trendline and holds. |
| Target | Widest part, projected from the breakout |
3 common mistakes
- Shorting inside the wedge while the trend is still up.
- Drawing lines through only two touches; you want 3+.
- Confusing it with a bullish ascending channel (parallel lines).
Backtest
same rules every time · equal size · no fees · method| Market | Trades | Won | Avg trade | Random day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin · 4H · 2017-2026 | 26 | 46% | −0.44% | — |
| US large caps (50) · 1D · 2016-2026 | 152 | 38% | −1.41% | — |
Verdict: SkipLost money on average in every market tested.
pattern −12%
pattern −214%