Triple Top
BearishReversalIntermediateThree tries at the same high, three failures. Then the floor gives way.
Verdict: SkipBitcoin 4H: 1 trades, won 100%, avg trade +2.0% vs random day 0.0% (too few trades to judge). Backtest
Price rallies into a high, then gets pushed back down.
step 1/7
Trade rules
| Direction | Short (sell) |
|---|---|
| Entry | After the third top is confirmed (a full 4% swing on Bitcoin, 5% on stocks), a candle CLOSES below the lower of the two valleys, within the time between top 2 and top 3 plus 5 candles. |
| Cancelled if | Price trades above the highest of the three tops before that close. |
| Target | Same height, projected from the breakout |
3 common mistakes
- Shorting the third top before support breaks.
- Using the higher valley as support: the pattern breaks at the lower one.
- Calling uneven highs a triple top: all three should be close to the same price.
Backtest
same rules every time · equal size · no fees · method| Market | Trades | Won | Avg trade | Random day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin · 4H · 2017-2026 · too few trades to judge | 1 | 100% | +2.01% | −0.03% |
| US large caps (50) · 1D · 2016-2026 | 25 | 56% | −0.72% | −1.52% |
Verdict: SkipLost money on average on US large caps. Bitcoin had too few signals to judge.
pattern −18%random −38%