Three Drives Bottom
BullishReversalIntermediateThree evenly spaced pushes to lower lows. The third one runs out of sellers.
No verdictBitcoin 4H: 4 trades, won 75%, avg trade +1.0% vs random day 0.0% (too few trades to judge). Backtest
Price falls to a low. That's drive one.
step 1/7
Trade rules
| Direction | Long (buy) |
|---|---|
| Entry | Each bounce retraces 61.8-78.6% of the drive before it; drives 2 and 3 reach 1.27-1.618x the bounce before them (each ±5%), and drive 3 takes 0.5-2x drive 2's time. Once the third low is confirmed (a 4% bounce on Bitcoin, 5% on stocks), a candle CLOSES above that low's candle high within 5 candles. |
| Cancelled if | Price trades below the third low before that close. |
| Target | Back to drive 3 start, projected from the breakout |
3 common mistakes
- Buying the second drive: you don't know there will only be three.
- Counting uneven pushes: a quick dip and a long slide aren't three drives.
- Setting the stop far below the third low and wrecking the reward-to-risk.
Backtest
same rules every time · equal size · no fees · method| Market | Trades | Won | Avg trade | Random day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin · 4H · 2017-2026 · too few trades to judge | 4 | 75% | +0.96% | +0.04% |
| US large caps (50) · 1D · 2016-2026 · too few trades to judge | 5 | 80% | +4.97% | +0.72% |
No verdictNot enough signals to judge.