Bump and Run Reversal Top
BearishReversalIntermediateA calm uptrend turns into a frenzy. When price falls back through the old line, it runs.
Verdict: SkipBitcoin 4H: 6 trades, won 50%, avg trade −1.8% vs random day −0.9% (too few trades to judge). Backtest
First, a calm uptrend. Draw a trendline under its lows. Price stays close to it. That's the lead-in.
step 1/6
Trade rules
| Direction | Short (sell) |
|---|---|
| Entry | A rising trendline through two swing lows (the lead-in), then a bump within the next 3 swing highs that gets at least 2x as far above the line and climbs at least 1.5x as steeply; a candle CLOSES below the trendline. |
| Cancelled if | Price trades above the top of the bump before that close. |
| Target | Bump height, projected from the breakout |
3 common mistakes
- Shorting the bump while it's still climbing.
- Drawing the trendline under the bump instead of under the calm lead-in.
- Calling any steep rally a bump: it has to be at least twice as far from the line.
Backtest
same rules every time · equal size · no fees · method| Market | Trades | Won | Avg trade | Random day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin · 4H · 2017-2026 · too few trades to judge | 6 | 50% | −1.83% | −0.93% |
| US large caps (50) · 1D · 2016-2026 | 70 | 40% | −5.70% | −8.15% |
Verdict: SkipLost money on average on US large caps. Bitcoin had too few signals to judge.
pattern −399%random −571%