Ascending Channel

BullishContinuationBeginner

Price climbs between two parallel lines. Buy the bounce off the floor.

Verdict: SkipBitcoin 4H: 8 trades, won 38%, avg trade −2.3% vs random day +0.2% (too few trades to judge). Backtest

Higher lowHigher high
Ascending Channel: textbook shape, step by step

Price climbs in steps. Each low is higher than the last one, and so is each high.

step 1/7

Trade rules

DirectionLong (buy)
EntryTwo rising, roughly parallel lines through 2 swing lows and 2 swing highs. After a new swing low touches the lower line, a candle CLOSES above the bounce's high within 10 candles.
Cancelled ifPrice trades below the touch low before that close.
TargetTo the top line
3 common mistakes
  • Buying the touch before price proves it bounced.
  • Calling two rising lines a channel when they converge: that's a wedge.
  • Taking the trade when the top line is closer than the stop.

Backtest

same rules every time · equal size · no fees · method
MarketTradesWonAvg tradeRandom day
Bitcoin · 4H · 2017-2026 · too few trades to judge838%−2.29%+0.17%
US large caps (50) · 1D · 2016-20269757%+0.37%+0.88%

Verdict: SkipIt made money, but less than buying on a random day. Bitcoin had too few signals to judge.

pattern +36%random +85%
US large caps (50) 1D: pattern +36% vs random day +85% over 97 trades

Real examples

Bitcoin · 4H

Breakout Apr 8, 2019, exit Apr 10, 2019 (target)+2.51%
Channel floorBounce highHigher low4,929 · Apr 6, 2019Higher high5,305 · Apr 8, 2019Third touch5,039 · Apr 8, 2019Bounce confirmed
Bitcoin 4H, real candles from Apr 4, 2019

Qualcomm · 1D

Breakout May 6, 2020, exit Jun 2, 2020 (target)+4.05%
Channel floorBounce highHigher low71.75 · Apr 21, 2020Higher high80.87 · Apr 30, 2020Third touch74.09 · May 4, 2020Bounce confirmed
Qualcomm 1D, real candles from Apr 9, 2020

Amazon · 1D

trapBreakout Jan 6, 2025, exit Jan 10, 2025 (stop)−4.69%
Channel floorBounce highHigher low195.75 · Nov 21, 2024Higher high233.00 · Dec 16, 2024Third touch218.19 · Jan 2, 2025Bounce confirmed
Amazon 1D, real candles from Oct 31, 2024