Kupach Trading

Bull Flag

BullishContinuationBeginner

A rocket, a pause, then the next leg up.

Verdict: SkipBitcoin 4H: 41 trades, won 42%, avg trade +0.2% vs random day +0.5%. Backtest

The pole
Bull Flag: textbook shape, step by step

Price explodes higher on big volume. This sharp move is the flagpole.

step 1/6

Trade rules

DirectionLong (buy)
EntryA candle CLOSE above the flag's upper line, with volume picking up.
Cancelled ifThe flag retraces more than half of the pole.
TargetPole height, projected from the breakout
3 common mistakes
  • Calling any pullback a flag: the pole must be sharp and fast.
  • Deep flags: if it gives back most of the pole, it's not a flag.
  • Expecting the full pole target every time.

Backtest

same rules every time · equal size · no fees · method
MarketTradesWonAvg tradeRandom day
Bitcoin · 4H · 2017-20264142%+0.18%+0.54%
US large caps (50) · 1D · 2016-202623447%+1.40%+1.73%

Verdict: SkipIt made money, but less than buying on a random day.

pattern +7.4%random +22%
Bitcoin 4H: pattern +7.4% vs random day +22% over 41 trades
pattern +328%random +405%
US large caps (50) 1D: pattern +328% vs random day +405% over 234 trades

Real examples

Bitcoin · 4H

Breakout Apr 15, 2025, exit Apr 23, 2025 (target)+9.67%
The pole86,100 · Apr 13, 2025The flag83,864 · Apr 14, 2025Breakout
Bitcoin 4H, real candles from Apr 10, 2025

Boeing · 1D

Breakout Jan 30, 2019, exit Feb 27, 2019 (target)+12.27%
The pole367.32 · Jan 18, 2019The flag357.50 · Jan 28, 2019Breakout
Boeing 1D, real candles from Jan 3, 2019

IBM · 1D

trapBreakout Sep 30, 2019, exit Oct 8, 2019 (stop)−4.54%
The pole139.06 · Sep 10, 2019The flag134.38 · Sep 23, 2019Breakout
IBM 1D, real candles from Aug 23, 2019