When is the Ascending Triangle confirmed?

A candle CLOSE above the flat resistance (the higher of the two highs), before the two lines meet.

When is the Ascending Triangle invalid?

Price trades below the last higher low before the breakout.

BullishContinuationBeginner

A flat ceiling, rising floors. Buyers squeeze sellers until the lid pops.

Verdict: SkipBitcoin 4H: 38 trades, won 34%, avg trade −1.6% vs random day +0.6%. Backtest

RejectedLow

Ascending Triangle: textbook shape, step by step

Price rallies into a level, gets sold, and pulls back.

step 1/6

Direction	Long (buy)
Entry	A candle CLOSE above the flat resistance (the higher of the two highs), before the two lines meet.
Cancelled if	Price trades below the last higher low before the breakout.
Target	Triangle height, projected from the breakout

3 common mistakes

Buying the touch of resistance instead of waiting for a close above it.
Calling it a triangle when the second low is not clearly higher than the first.
Putting the stop under the first low, which makes the risk far bigger than needed.

same rules every time · equal size · no fees · method

Market	Trades	Won	Avg trade	Random day
Bitcoin · 4H · 2017-2026	38	34%	−1.58%	+0.58%
US large caps (50) · 1D · 2016-2026	251	54%	+1.32%	+1.86%

Verdict: SkipNever beat a random entry, and lost money in some markets.

pattern −60%random +22%

Bitcoin 4H: pattern −60% vs random day +22% over 38 trades

pattern +331%random +466%

US large caps (50) 1D: pattern +331% vs random day +466% over 251 trades

Breakout Nov 4, 2020, exit Nov 5, 2020 (target)+6.84%

Rising lowsRejected14,100 · Oct 31, 2020Low13,195 · Nov 2, 2020Same price14,066 · Nov 3, 2020Higher low13,525 · Nov 4, 2020Breakout

Bitcoin 4H, real candles from Oct 31, 2020

Breakout Jan 12, 2026, exit Feb 3, 2026 (target)+12.16%

Rising lowsRejected627.50 · Dec 12, 2025Low557.46 · Dec 17, 2025Same price626.77 · Jan 6, 2026Higher low594.17 · Jan 8, 2026Breakout

Caterpillar 1D, real candles from Dec 12, 2025

trapBreakout Mar 10, 2021, exit Mar 19, 2021 (stop)−7.12%

Rising lowsRejected220.39 · Dec 30, 2020Low192.81 · Jan 29, 2021Same price220.53 · Feb 24, 2021Higher low208.67 · Mar 4, 2021Breakout

Visa 1D, real candles from Dec 30, 2020