Bear Pennant
BearishContinuationIntermediateA sharp drop, a tiny triangle, then the next leg down.
Verdict: SkipBitcoin 4H: 10 trades, won 10%, avg trade −3.1% vs random day −0.2% (too few trades to judge). Backtest
Price collapses in a straight line. That is the pole.
step 1/6
Trade rules
| Direction | Short (sell) |
|---|---|
| Entry | A candle CLOSE below the pennant's lower line (through the pole bottom and the higher low). |
| Cancelled if | Price trades above the pennant's last lower high before the breakdown. |
| Target | Pole height, projected from the breakout |
3 common mistakes
- Shorting the bottom of the pole, right before the bounce.
- Calling a slow grind down a pole: the drop must be sharp.
- Holding on after a close back above the pennant: the setup is gone.
Backtest
same rules every time · equal size · no fees · method| Market | Trades | Won | Avg trade | Random day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin · 4H · 2017-2026 · too few trades to judge | 10 | 10% | −3.08% | −0.19% |
| US large caps (50) · 1D · 2016-2026 | 53 | 23% | −2.76% | −1.16% |
Verdict: SkipLost money on average on US large caps. Bitcoin had too few signals to judge.
pattern −146%random −62%