Bearish AB=CD
BearishReversalIntermediateTwo equal rallies in a row. The second often stalls where the measuring says.
Verdict: SkipBitcoin 4H: 20 trades, won 30%, avg trade −2.6% vs random day −0.5%. Backtest
Price rallies from A to B. That rally is the ruler.
step 1/7
Trade rules
| Direction | Short (sell) |
|---|---|
| Entry | C retraces 38.2-88.6% of AB; CD equals AB in price (±5%) and takes 0.5-2x AB's time. Once price drops 2% from D (2.5% on stocks), a candle CLOSES below the low of the D candle within 5 candles. |
| Cancelled if | Price trades above D before that close. No pattern if price drops back below C before D, or the second rally runs more than 5% longer than AB. |
| Target | 61.8% of A to D, projected from the breakout |
3 common mistakes
- Shorting the moment CD equals AB, before price turns.
- Fighting a strong uptrend with a pattern that needs a top.
- Measuring the legs in percent on one and in dollars on the other.
Backtest
same rules every time · equal size · no fees · method| Market | Trades | Won | Avg trade | Random day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin · 4H · 2017-2026 | 20 | 30% | −2.62% | −0.49% |
| US large caps (50) · 1D · 2016-2026 | 164 | 41% | −1.02% | −0.94% |
Verdict: SkipLost money on average in every market tested.
pattern −52%random −9.8%
pattern −168%random −155%