Bearish Bat
BearishReversalAdvancedA shallow bounce, then a rally to 88.6% of the drop. The short sits just below X.
No verdictBitcoin 4H: 2 trades, won 0%, avg trade −5.3% vs random day −0.5% (too few trades to judge). Backtest
Price peaks at X and drops to A.
step 1/8
Trade rules
| Direction | Short (sell) |
|---|---|
| Entry | B at 38.2-50% of XA, C at 38.2-88.6% of AB, D at 88.6% of XA with CD 1.618-2.618x BC (each ±5%). Once price drops 2% from D (2.5% on stocks), a candle CLOSES below the low of the D candle within 5 candles. |
| Cancelled if | Price trades above D before that close. No pattern if price drops back below C before D, rallies more than 5% past the 88.6% level, or D takes longer than X to C took. |
| Target | 61.8% of A to D, projected from the breakout |
3 common mistakes
- Shorting the rally before it reaches the 88.6% zone.
- Shorting at D without waiting for the close below the D candle's low.
- Ignoring a strong uptrend: there the rally often runs past X.
Backtest
same rules every time · equal size · no fees · method| Market | Trades | Won | Avg trade | Random day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin · 4H · 2017-2026 · too few trades to judge | 2 | 0% | −5.30% | −0.47% |
| US large caps (50) · 1D · 2016-2026 · too few trades to judge | 10 | 50% | −2.46% | −0.70% |
No verdictNot enough signals to judge.