Bearish Gartley
BearishReversalAdvancedFour Fibonacci legs. The last one rallies to 78.6% of the first, and fails.
No verdictBitcoin 4H: 2 trades, won 50%, avg trade −2.0% vs random day −0.1% (too few trades to judge). Backtest
Price peaks at X, then sells off hard to A. That drop is the ruler for every other leg.
step 1/8
Trade rules
| Direction | Short (sell) |
|---|---|
| Entry | B at 61.8% of XA, C at 38.2-88.6% of AB, D at 78.6% of XA with CD 1.27-1.618x BC (each ±5%). Once price drops 2% from D (2.5% on stocks), a candle CLOSES below the low of the D candle within 5 candles. |
| Cancelled if | Price trades above D before that close. No pattern if price drops back below C before D, rallies more than 5% past the 78.6% level, or D takes longer than X to C took. |
| Target | 61.8% of A to D, projected from the breakout |
3 common mistakes
- Shorting at D before price actually turns down.
- Calling any lower high a Gartley without checking B at 61.8%.
- Placing the stop just above D instead of above X.
Backtest
same rules every time · equal size · no fees · method| Market | Trades | Won | Avg trade | Random day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin · 4H · 2017-2026 · too few trades to judge | 2 | 50% | −2.05% | −0.11% |
| US large caps (50) · 1D · 2016-2026 · too few trades to judge | 13 | 62% | −0.57% | −0.76% |
No verdictNot enough signals to judge.