Bump and Run Reversal Bottom
BullishReversalIntermediateA steady decline turns into panic. When price climbs back over the old line, it runs up.
Verdict: SkipBitcoin 4H: 9 trades, won 56%, avg trade +2.5% vs random day +1.9% (too few trades to judge). Backtest
First, a slow, steady decline. Draw a trendline over its highs. Price stays close to it. That's the lead-in.
step 1/6
Trade rules
| Direction | Long (buy) |
|---|---|
| Entry | A falling trendline through two swing highs (the lead-in), then a drop within the next 3 swing lows that gets at least 2x as far below the line and falls at least 1.5x as steeply; a candle CLOSES above the trendline. |
| Cancelled if | Price trades below the bottom of the bump before that close. |
| Target | Bump depth, projected from the breakout |
3 common mistakes
- Buying the crash while it's still falling.
- Drawing the trendline over the crash instead of over the calm lead-in.
- Calling any sharp drop a bump: it has to be at least twice as far from the line.
Backtest
same rules every time · equal size · no fees · method| Market | Trades | Won | Avg trade | Random day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin · 4H · 2017-2026 · too few trades to judge | 9 | 56% | +2.52% | +1.92% |
| US large caps (50) · 1D · 2016-2026 | 53 | 62% | +2.40% | +3.91% |
Verdict: SkipIt made money, but less than buying on a random day. Bitcoin had too few signals to judge.
pattern +127%random +207%