Bear Flag
BearishContinuationBeginnerA crash, a weak bounce, then the next leg down.
Verdict: SkipBitcoin 4H: 21 trades, won 29%, avg trade −1.1% vs random day −0.4%. Backtest
Price drops hard and fast, on heavy volume. That plunge is the flagpole.
step 1/6
Trade rules
| Direction | Short (sell) |
|---|---|
| Entry | A candle CLOSE below the flag's lower line (through the pole bottom and the flag's low). |
| Cancelled if | Price trades above the highest point of the flag before the breakdown. |
| Target | Pole height, projected from the breakout |
3 common mistakes
- Calling any bounce a flag: the drop before it must be sharp and fast.
- Deep bounces: if it wins back more than half of the drop, it is not a flag.
- Shorting inside the flag before the lower line breaks.
Backtest
same rules every time · equal size · no fees · method| Market | Trades | Won | Avg trade | Random day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin · 4H · 2017-2026 | 21 | 29% | −1.07% | −0.43% |
| US large caps (50) · 1D · 2016-2026 | 148 | 34% | −0.89% | −1.20% |
Verdict: SkipLost money on average in every market tested.
pattern −22%random −9.1%
pattern −131%random −178%