High Tight Flag
BullishContinuationAdvancedA huge, fast run, then a pause that barely gives anything back.
Verdict: CautionBitcoin 4H: 29 trades, won 35%, avg trade −1.3% vs random day +0.9%. Backtest
First, a huge run in a short time. Not a normal rally, about three times the size of a normal flag pole.
step 1/5
Trade rules
| Direction | Long (buy) |
|---|---|
| Entry | After a rise of at least three normal flag poles in a short time and a flag of at least 5 candles, a candle CLOSE above the flag high (the top of the run). |
| Cancelled if | Price trades below the flag's low before the breakout, or the flag gives back more than a third of the run. |
| Target | Pole height, projected from the breakout |
3 common mistakes
- Buying the run itself, before any pause has formed.
- Accepting a deep pullback: if it gives back a lot of the run, it is not tight.
- Using a normal rally as the pole: this pattern needs an unusually big, fast move.
Backtest
same rules every time · equal size · no fees · method| Market | Trades | Won | Avg trade | Random day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin · 4H · 2017-2026 | 29 | 35% | −1.34% | +0.94% |
| US large caps (50) · 1D · 2016-2026 | 180 | 48% | +7.31% | +5.09% |
Verdict: CautionBeat a random entry in some markets, not in others.
pattern −39%random +27%
pattern +1315%random +917%