Trendline Break
BullishReversalBeginnerThree lower highs on one line. The first close above it says the sellers lost grip.
Verdict: SkipBitcoin 4H: 94 trades, won 44%, avg trade +0.3% vs random day +0.8%. Backtest
Price is falling. Every bounce stops lower than the one before.
step 1/6
Trade rules
| Direction | Long (buy) |
|---|---|
| Entry | A falling line through three lower swing highs, with no close above it until the third high is confirmed; the first candle CLOSE above the line. |
| Cancelled if | No close above the line within half the pattern's length (plus 5 candles) after the third high: the line has gone stale. |
| Target | Widest gap, projected from the breakout |
3 common mistakes
- Drawing the line through only two highs: any two points make a line.
- Redrawing the line after every break so it never counts as broken.
- Expecting a new uptrend right away: the break often turns into a range first.
Backtest
same rules every time · equal size · no fees · method| Market | Trades | Won | Avg trade | Random day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin · 4H · 2017-2026 | 94 | 44% | +0.29% | +0.85% |
| US large caps (50) · 1D · 2016-2026 | 564 | 49% | +1.41% | +1.64% |
Verdict: SkipIt made money, but less than buying on a random day.
pattern +27%random +80%
pattern +795%random +928%