When is the Break of Structure confirmed?

Main swings show a higher high and a higher low. Once the higher low is confirmed, a candle CLOSES above the last swing high.

When is the Break of Structure invalid?

Price trades below the higher low first, or there is no close above within the length of the last pullback plus 10 candles.

BullishContinuationBeginner

Higher low, then a close above the last high. The uptrend keeps going.

Verdict: SkipBitcoin 4H: 187 trades, won 54%, avg trade −0.6% vs random day +0.6%. Backtest

HighLowHigher high

Break of Structure: textbook shape, step by step

An uptrend climbs in steps. A high, a pullback that holds above the last low, then a higher high.

step 1/6

Direction	Long (buy)
Entry	Main swings show a higher high and a higher low. Once the higher low is confirmed, a candle CLOSES above the last swing high.
Cancelled if	Price trades below the higher low first, or there is no close above within the length of the last pullback plus 10 candles.
Target	Swing height, projected from the breakout

3 common mistakes

same rules every time · equal size · no fees · method

Market	Trades	Won	Avg trade	Random day
Bitcoin · 4H · 2017-2026	187	54%	−0.60%	+0.57%
US large caps (50) · 1D · 2016-2026	1551	65%	+1.21%	+1.50%

Verdict: SkipNever beat a random entry, and lost money in some markets.

pattern −113%random +107%

Bitcoin 4H: pattern −113% vs random day +107% over 187 trades

pattern +1882%random +2332%

US large caps (50) 1D: pattern +1882% vs random day +2332% over 1551 trades

Breakout Feb 18, 2019, exit Feb 18, 2019 (target)+4.61%

Last swing highHigh3,526 · Feb 2, 2019Low3,373 · Feb 7, 2019Higher high3,734 · Feb 8, 2019Higher low3,568 · Feb 14, 2019Break

Bitcoin 12H, real candles from Feb 2, 2019

Breakout Jan 30, 2019, exit Feb 15, 2019 (target)+4.86%

Last swing highHigh176.87 · Dec 12, 2018Low158.09 · Dec 24, 2018Higher high181.27 · Jan 9, 2019Higher low172.00 · Jan 17, 2019Break

Home Depot 1D, real candles from Dec 12, 2018

trapBreakout May 30, 2019, exit May 30, 2019 (stop)−6.15%

Last swing highHigh8,080 · May 20, 2019Low7,461 · May 23, 2019Higher high8,908 · May 27, 2019Higher low8,407 · May 29, 2019Break

Bitcoin 4H, real candles from May 20, 2019