When is the Wyckoff Spring confirmed?

A 20-candle range at least 4% (Bitcoin) or 5% (stocks) tall, whose first and second half both reach its bottom and top quarter. Price trades below the range floor, and within the next 3 candles a candle CLOSES back above the floor.

When is the Wyckoff Spring invalid?

No close back inside the range within 3 candles. A candle that makes a new low can't be the entry; the stop moves under it.

Wyckoff Spring

BullishReversalAdvanced

After weeks in a range, price drops through the floor and snaps right back.

Verdict: SkipBitcoin 4H: 133 trades, won 32%, avg trade −0.1% vs random day +0.3%. Backtest

SupportResistance

Wyckoff Spring: textbook shape, step by step

After a decline, price stops falling and bounces between a floor and a ceiling.

step 1/6

Trade rules

Direction	Long (buy)
Entry	A 20-candle range at least 4% (Bitcoin) or 5% (stocks) tall, whose first and second half both reach its bottom and top quarter. Price trades below the range floor, and within the next 3 candles a candle CLOSES back above the floor.
Cancelled if	No close back inside the range within 3 candles. A candle that makes a new low can't be the entry; the stop moves under it.
Target	Range height, projected from the breakout

3 common mistakes

Calling any dip below support a spring. It needs a long sideways range first.
Buying while price is still below the floor, hoping it comes back.
Expecting the breakout right away. After a spring, price often chops inside the range first.

Backtest

same rules every time · equal size · no fees · method

Market	Trades	Won	Avg trade	Random day
Bitcoin · 4H · 2017-2026	133	32%	−0.09%	+0.28%
US large caps (50) · 1D · 2016-2026	1028	40%	+0.65%	+0.70%

Verdict: SkipNever beat a random entry, and lost money in some markets.

pattern −11%random +38%

Bitcoin 4H: pattern −11% vs random day +38% over 133 trades

pattern +663%random +724%

US large caps (50) 1D: pattern +663% vs random day +724% over 1028 trades

Real examples

Bitcoin · 4H

Breakout Oct 16, 2020, exit Oct 19, 2020 (target)+3.08%

Range topRange floorBack insideSupport11,251 · Oct 15, 2020Resistance11,720 · Oct 12, 2020Spring11,200 · Oct 16, 2020Back inside

Bitcoin 4H, real candles from Oct 12, 2020

Starbucks · 1D

Breakout Oct 25, 2022, exit Nov 4, 2022 (target)+6.68%

Range topRange floorBack insideSupport83.17 · Sep 27, 2022Resistance90.90 · Oct 6, 2022Spring82.43 · Oct 24, 2022Back inside

Starbucks 1D, real candles from Sep 26, 2022

Bitcoin · 4H

trapBreakout Jul 1, 2021, exit Jul 1, 2021 (stop)−1.54%

Range topRange floorBack insideSupport33,313 · Jul 1, 2021Resistance36,600 · Jun 29, 2021Spring33,001 · Jul 1, 2021Back inside

Bitcoin 4H, real candles from Jun 28, 2021