Market Structure Shift
BullishReversalIntermediateA downtrend makes lower highs. The first close above one is the first crack.
Verdict: CautionBitcoin 4H: 132 trades, won 58%, avg trade +0.9% vs random day +0.7%. Backtest
A downtrend has a rhythm: each bounce stops lower, each drop goes lower.
step 1/6
Trade rules
| Direction | Long (buy) |
|---|---|
| Entry | Main swings show a lower high and a lower low. Once the new low is confirmed, a candle CLOSES above the last lower high. |
| Cancelled if | Price trades below the new low first, or there is no close above within the length of the last drop plus 10 candles. |
| Target | Swing height, projected from the breakout |
3 common mistakes
- Using a tiny bounce high instead of the last real lower high.
- Buying on a wick above the high instead of a close.
- Expecting a new uptrend right away. A shift is a first crack, not a trend.
Backtest
same rules every time · equal size · no fees · method| Market | Trades | Won | Avg trade | Random day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin · 4H · 2017-2026 | 132 | 58% | +0.91% | +0.74% |
| US large caps (50) · 1D · 2016-2026 | 937 | 57% | +0.80% | +1.86% |
Verdict: CautionBeat a random entry in some markets, not in others.
pattern +120%random +97%
pattern +746%random +1742%